Investor behaviour

The SIP evidence: 16 markets, 30 years

15 August 2026

A 30-year study of systematic investing across 16 equity markets gives the clearest cross-country evidence we have seen on the question every SIP investor eventually asks: does the discipline actually pay?

The pattern across markets: SIP (dollar-cost-averaged) returns matched or beat lumpsum returns in most of the 16, and in every market where SIP real returns were negligible (the UK, Malaysia, the Philippines), lumpsum real returns were negative. Systematic investing was the more resilient approach precisely in the markets where returns were hardest to earn.

India’s numbers lead the study:

India, 30 years Lumpsum SIP
Nominal returns (p.a.) 11% 12%
Real returns (p.a.) 4% 5%
5-year SIPs beating 8% returns — 74% of the time

Data: Bloomberg, DSP; 30 years to April 2026. Local-currency index returns. Historical statistics, not assurances of future returns.

That 74%, the share of five-year windows in which SIP returns exceeded 8%, is the highest of any market studied. The worst five-year SIP outcome in India was −11% a year; the best, +46%.

IndiaIndia: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 74% of the time over the last 30 years74%USAUSA: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 52% of the time over the last 30 years52%BrazilBrazil: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 51% of the time over the last 30 years51%JapanJapan: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 47% of the time over the last 30 years47%IndonesiaIndonesia: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 47% of the time over the last 30 years47%MexicoMexico: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 47% of the time over the last 30 years47%PhilippinesPhilippines: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 41% of the time over the last 30 years41%KoreaKorea: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 33% of the time over the last 30 years33%China (HK listed)China (HK listed): 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 33% of the time over the last 30 years33%TaiwanTaiwan: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 29% of the time over the last 30 years29%MalaysiaMalaysia: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 27% of the time over the last 30 years27%China MainlandChina Mainland: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 25% of the time over the last 30 years25%CanadaCanada: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 24% of the time over the last 30 years24%FranceFrance: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 24% of the time over the last 30 years24%AustraliaAustralia: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 17% of the time over the last 30 years17%UKUK: 5-year SIPs beat 8% returns 12% of the time over the last 30 years12%
Share of 5-year SIP windows with returns above 8%, last 30 years, local-currency major indices. Data: Bloomberg, DSP; as of April 2026.

The structure explains the result. Market average returns are ensemble averages; an investor’s return is a time average, and one interruption (a stopped SIP in a bad year, a panic exit) permanently separates the two. Rupee-cost averaging mechanically buys more units at low prices and fewer at highs, which converts volatility from an enemy into an input. Across 30 years of data, the bad outcomes track interrupted plans.

None of this guarantees the next 30 years resemble the last 30. What the data supports is narrower and more useful: across very different markets and outcomes, the systematic version of equity investing produced fewer catastrophic outcomes than the timed version.

What we’ll watch: India’s SIP flow persistence (currently ₹32,000+ crore a month, 61 consecutive months of positive equity flows) through the current consolidation, the live test of the behaviour the 30-year data rewards.

Source: Data: Bloomberg, DSP; 30 years to April 2026. Historical statistics, not assurances of future returns.
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