Macro & cycles

A benign bear: 103 days under the 200-DMA without a 20% fall

15 August 2026

Since 27 February 2026, the Nifty has traded below its 200-day moving average for more than 103 trading days, long enough to enter the ten longest such phases in the index’s history. What makes this stretch unusual is how shallow it has been.

May 2008 – Apr 2009May 2008 – Apr 2009 · 227 trading days · max distance −45.3% below the 200-DMA227 days · −45.3%Nov 1994 – Oct 1995Nov 1994 – Oct 1995 · 207 trading days · max distance −23.6% below the 200-DMA207 days · −23.6%Mar 2001 – Dec 2001Mar 2001 – Dec 2001 · 188 trading days · max distance −27.2% below the 200-DMA188 days · −27.2%May 2011 – Jan 2012May 2011 – Jan 2012 · 188 trading days · max distance −15.3% below the 200-DMA188 days · −15.3%Nov 1992 – Aug 1993Nov 1992 – Aug 1993 · 165 trading days · max distance −26.1% below the 200-DMA165 days · −26.1%Aug 2015 – Apr 2016Aug 2015 – Apr 2016 · 159 trading days · max distance −13.2% below the 200-DMA159 days · −13.2%May 1998 – Jan 1999May 1998 – Jan 1999 · 157 trading days · max distance −19.3% below the 200-DMA157 days · −19.3%Jul 2000 – Jan 2001Jul 2000 – Jan 2001 · 131 trading days · max distance −22.3% below the 200-DMA131 days · −22.3%Feb 2026 – ongoingFeb 2026 – ongoing · 103 trading days · max distance −11.5% below the 200-DMA103 days · −11.5%Jul 2002 – Nov 2002Jul 2002 – Nov 2002 · 95 trading days · max distance −13.0% below the 200-DMA95 days · −13.0%
Ten longest Nifty phases below the 200-day moving average: trading days and maximum distance below the average. Data: NSE, DSP; as of July 2026.

Every other consolidation in the top ten cut deeper: most took the index 15–45% below its trend line. The current one has never breached −11.5%, and the index has not fallen 20% from its September 2024 peak at any point in the decline. By drawdown, this barely qualifies as a bear market at all.

Prices have been range-bound while earnings and dividends kept accruing, so the market has worked off its valuation through time. The five-year rolling return for the Nifty has converged toward its ten-year rolling return, which is what “reversion to mean” looks like when it happens sideways. Clean corporate balance sheets (median debt-to-assets for listed India is at series lows) are a plausible reason the decline found buyers before it found panic.

Time corrections resolve in one of two ways: earnings growth inflects higher and prices follow, or the range eventually breaks down. The longer the consolidation runs without deep price damage, the more the eventual outcome depends on the earnings side of that equation.

What we’ll watch: the day count against the historical table, and whether FY27 earnings provide the inflection that has historically ended sideways phases.

Source: Data: NSE, DSP; as of July 2026.
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